Methodology

Every field traces to a public record

Commercial mortgage data goes stale fast and is often wrong in ways that embarrass the broker who trusts it. Our rule: a fact is only a fact if a citable public document says so — and every value carries its source.

Loans tracked: 193,824
Maturing within 12 months: 26,210
Stated maturities read from documents: 2,672
Lifecycle events matched: 2,727,504

Sources, in order of authority

County recorder — NYC ACRIS: every mortgage, consolidation, deed, satisfaction, assignment, modification, and assumption recorded since 2004.
Assessor — NYC PLUTO: parcel attributes, building class, assessed value.
The recorded document itself — the scanned instrument, read for the stated maturity, term, and rate.
SEC ABS-EE and agency disclosure — for securitized loans (in progress).

Trade press is never a source of record.

Provenance tiers

Tier	Meaning	What it covers
`R`	Recorded	Read directly off a recorded instrument (mortgage, deed, satisfaction, assignment). Cited by ACRIS document ID.
`P`	Public dataset	From a public structured dataset such as NYC PLUTO (year built, units, square footage, coordinates).
`C`	Computed	Derived by our code from R/P facts — loan purpose, LTV, prospect score. The formula is stated.
`X`	Extracted	Read from the scanned recorded document by a vision model, with confidence. Stated maturities and rates live here.
`M`	Modelled	An assumption — chiefly the loan term when the recorded document doesn't state one. Always shown as an estimate (≈), never as a fact.

A modelled (M) maturity never renders as a fact. In the app it carries an ≈ marker; a stated (X) maturity is bold and cites the document it was read from.

Sizing the loan correctly

New York loans are usually recorded as a set — a gap mortgage plus a consolidation agreement (CEMA), sometimes with a deed. Reading a single row double-counts principal or reports the wrong amount. We classify the whole recorded set: the consolidation instrument carries the loan, split notes sum, and superseded notes are marked so they never appear as separate loans.

Estimating a maturity when none is recorded

ACRIS has no term or maturity field. When the recorded document does not state one (most consolidation agreements don't — the note is an unrecorded exhibit), we do not pick one date and present it as fact. We model the plausible terms for that lender and instrument and keep all of them:

Banks, credit unions, unknown lenders — 5, 7 or 10 years (weighted 0.40 / 0.25 / 0.35).
Debt funds and standalone agreements (bridge / construction) — 3 or 5 years (0.60 / 0.40).
Agency and CMBS — 10 years.

A maturity filter such as “next 12 months” matches a loan ifany plausible term lands in the window, and the row says which one did (“≈ 5-yr”). The headline estimate shown elsewhere is the most common term for that lender type (5 years for banks, 3 for debt funds, 10 for agency and CMBS), marked ≈. A maturity read from the recorded document replaces the whole set and renders in bold with its citation.

Prospect score

A 0–100 convenience rank, computed from fields you can see — not a black box. Base 40; +35 if the best-available maturity is 6–18 months out, +25 under 6 months, +18 at 18–36 months, +12 if it matured within the last 24 months; up to +15 for loan size (log-scaled); −8 when the maturity is modelled rather than stated; +5 for multifamily or office. Brokers weight these differently, so the score is a default ordering, not a verdict.

Keeping it current

Every week, per borough, we re-read the recorder and apply five guards:

Satisfied — a recorded satisfaction or release, matched through ACRIS References by CRFN and document ID, removes the loan from the active set. Partial releases are recorded but do not retire the loan.
Superseded — a later consolidation (M&CON or a CEMA agreement) that cites the loan folds it into the new instrument; the old note stops being a separate maturity. This is how most New York loans actually end.
Modified / assumed — a later modification or assumption flags the loan: its stated terms are superseded and must be re-verified before citing.
Foreclosed — a referee's deed conveying the collateral marks the loan foreclosed.
Distressed — assignment to a special servicer, a recorded judgment, a deed-in-lieu, or a tax-lien sale flags the loan as distressed or on watch.

What public records cannot tell you

Honesty about limits is part of the method. ACRIS has no maturity field, so most maturities are modelled until read from the document. Consolidation agreements often leave the note unrecorded. Lis pendens filings live with the courts, not the recorder. Current balances, DSCR, and occupancy exist only in securitization disclosure. We show these gaps rather than fill them with guesses.